What’s going on with Bitcoin Cash? What does the historical data say, and what is the cryptocurrency sentiment as we close the book on 2019. Let’s review.
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Quarter by Quarter
It was a slow start for Bitcoin Cash in Q1 of 2019 after the bearish run of 2018.
The Bulls had a good run during the Q2 of 2019 and broke above the previous high of $232.10 of 01 December 2018.
For Q3, the price was driven down by a bearish move after finding resistance at $517.75, and a later collapse of 01 June ’19 support ($362.53).
The last quarter Q4 had an early retest of the $306.85 resistance, closing bullish on 01 Oct ’19, before the selling pressure moved the price lower, signaling a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on 01 November ’19.
With the year wrapping up, we will review the major highlights of the year for BCH, but first, let’s take a quick look at something that caught our eye on Crypto Twitter today.
Thank you DejanRoljic for sharing this video. Paying with Bitcoin Cash through the GoCrypto app at a Burger King in Slovenia sounds pretty exciting and very cool, right? It’s a signal for things to come, but we have to wonder if that’s the best way to use your crypto in this current bear market.
Schnorr Signature and 2019 Upgrades
In 2019, Bitcoin Cash had two upgrades that bolstered the development toward scaling and technical improvements.
The first of these upgrades came on May 15, at block 582680. This upgrade saw the BCH blockchain implement the necessary foundations of the Schnorr signature functionality and the Segwit recovery exemption.
The Schnorr signatures improve scaling and privacy while the Segwit recovery change allowed network users to reclaim funds accidentally sent to Segwit addresses.
The second of these upgrades took place on November 15, at block height 609135.
This upgrade saw BCH developers implement the Minimaldata rule change. The rule change removes the final bip-0062 malleability vector from the network and results in the majority of BCH transactions on the system to be non-malleable.
Simple Ledger Protocol (SLP)
The BCH network also witnessed growth in the use of the SLP framework. With the protocol becoming quite robust, BCH has seen the creation of 6,141 tokens so far, accounting for 312,505 SLP transactions this year.
Popular tokens built on the BCH network this year include Honk Honk, Spice, Official Honk, ACD coin, Flex coin, Honestcoin, SAI, Drop, and Gocrypto. Many of these SLP tokens have gained value, and BCH proponents have watched token market capitalizations grow.
Various wallets support SLP tokens including Memo, Ifwallet, Electron Cash SLP, Badger, and Crescent Cash
Merchant Adoption
Since the start of this year, the adoption of BCH by merchant banks and financial institutions has grown considerably. Data from Acceptbitcoin.cash revealed that as of January, 550 brick-and-mortar merchants were listed on Map.Bitcoin.com, 934 online merchants accepted BCH, and 889 merchants of all types could be found on Green Pages.
Major Launches and New Applications
The BCH network in 2019 witnessed a flurry of new milestones and application launch, some of which are listed below.
- The launch of the dedicated SLP exchange Cryptophyl. The exchange created a market centered on the SLP framework, and that uses BCH as the base pair.
- The launch of blogging project Read.cash,
- The launch of a $200 million fund to promote the growth of the BCH ecosystem,
- BCH also announced plans to build a $50M Bitcoin Cash tech park in North Queensland Australia, following the growth of merchant adoption in the continent.
- The development of a video game called Realmx, built on the Bitcoin Cash blockchain network.
Should we expect a recovery in the price of Bitcoin Cash in Q4 2019?
Let’s analyze the charts much further.
BCHUSD: Monthly Time Frame
From October 1, 2018, BCH made double bearish accumulation with a short-selling entry signal at $422.67. This led to the bears taking over the market down into the early part of the Q1 2019 for a bearish price move of about -82.5% in 61d, as shown below.
The first month of January 2019 ended with a double bearish accumulation at $232.10 indicating a gathering of sell orders that may either result in a price drop, or a recoil to the up side.
A breakout of the double bearish accumulation resistance, at $232.10, led to a price hike of about 98.51% from the resistance, therefore transferring market control to the bulls. However, the Bulls met resistance at a $517.75 high on June 1, 2019, closing at $399.50.
The bearish accumulation on August 1, 2019 at $279.37, drove the price down to a current low of $192.10 in Q4.
BCHUSD: Weekly Time Frame
From a weekly chart perspective on 30 July 2018, the BCHUSD experienced a breakdown of Bullish accumulation with short-selling at $709.38. This breakdown led to a downtrend, and sellers taking over the market.
The MACD indicator shows regular bullish divergence setups, which indicates that we might soon have an uptrend in the market while the price (candlesticks) is dropping.
Breakout of bullish accumulation and double bullish accumulation on February 4, 2019 at $125.88 corresponded with the regular bullish divergence on August 27, 2018 and December 17, 2018 at $195.95. This move led to an uptrend in the BCHUSD market.
The bullish trend came to an end around the MA-50 with a breakdown of bullish accumulation on July 8, 2019; $281.94 down to August 26, 2019 at the $281.90 support zone.
Another breakdown of bullish accumulation took place on November 18, 2019 at $207.43, and the market is currently resting at a support zone.
BCHUSD: Daily Time Frame
On the daily time frame, after the bear rally and a rise in MACD momentum with regular bullish divergence on December 17, 2018 at $88.02, took the BCHUSD price up to the high of $232.10 on December 2018.
Breakdown of hidden bullish accumulation on December 25, 2018 at $170.37 indicated that sellers are still in the market.
Regular bullish divergence on January 30, 2019 at $116.20 was spotted, and it took the BCHUSD price above the last high of December 21, 2018, creating a new high of $354.17 on 03 April 2019.
During the corrective stage of the market, a hidden bullish divergence on May 1, 2019 at $267.89, was established, which led to a trend continuation; the 50-MA also acted as a support in that zone.
Regular bearish divergences were spotted and gave an early signal that price was losing momentum to the upside on June 3, 2019 at $401.02. Meanwhile, on June 27, 2019 at $411.76, regular bearish divergence was confirmed. Another bearish divergence was formed on August 14, 2019 at $311.14, showing that the bears are in control of the market.
The bullish divergence on September 2, 2019 at $23.95 was short-lived. It couldn’t go above the September 17, 2019 high of $333.93, and hidden bearish divergence on September 23, 2019 at $292.06 brought the BCHUSD price down, eventually finding support around the $210 zone on November 14, 2019 at $277.17, where a double bearish accumulation took the price down to its previous support around the $210 area.
A regular bullish divergence is established on November 26, 2019 at $211.15 using the MACD oscillator. Currently, the price rests within this support zone.
Conclusion
Bullish Scenario
If bulls should pick the momentum and close the BCHUSD price above the December 10, 2019 resistance of $209.04, we should expect the price to bounce up from the current support it is sitting on.
Bearish Scenario
The not-too-distant collapse of bullish accumulation support at $209.00 may see the bears driving the price further south.
Where do you think the price is going as we end 2019? Will it be a bang or a bust?
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