Home Insights More People Fear A Recession

More People Fear A Recession

by Alan Daniel
“The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession”- Ben Bernanke January 10, 2008.
Recession here, recession there, recession everywhere? We see concrete signs of distress in global markets.

Global Uncertainty

China growth fears kicked off times of volatility in 2015, with further troubles, devaluations of its currency, and other issues going into 2016 and 2017. Trade war tensions between the U.S. and China continue to trouble the markets and undoubtedly has an impact.

Deep economic troubles are present in countries like Argentina, and debt problems were current in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Greece (PIIGS). Further, the IMF and other institutions expect a global slowdown in growth over the following years. A forecasted global slowdown in growth wouldn’t be a problem if governmental debt levels and personal debt levels weren’t as high across the board. India, an emerging market country, recently lowered its interest rates and stimulated its economy by slashing corporate tax rates.

These are situations taking place across the world, but how’s the United States doing overall?

Recession Fears In The United States of America

Debt

We all know about the increasing national debt, entitlements, and personal debts (student loans, credit cards, etc.) which continue to grow in the United States. But what about other aspects of the economy? Unemployment is down to its lowest levels, and real wage growth has remained stagnant in the United States.


Federal Reserve and Pre-Emptive Actions

Further, we’re all confused by the Federal Reserve. If the economy is doing so great, and they slowly raised interest rates to around 2% by 2016, with plans to increase it over the next few years, why did they go in the opposite direction? Why did they lower interest rates several times in a relatively short time frame?

Next, the Federal Reserve and recent repurchase agreements were a cause for concern. Finally, the New York Federal Reserve has just recently injected $105 billion into the banking system, providing for more stability in banking. It will also continue with its repurchase operations.


Family Office Sentiment and Consumer confidence

Investors are turning more cautious as we enter into 2020. Reports by UBS and others indicate that more than 50% of wealthy people see significant potential for a recession in 2020. As a result of this expectation, these investors are allocating their portfolios to more conservative investments while increasing their cash position. Also, they seek to minimize their debt and use of leverage when purchasing stocks. Consumer confidence is also down, and treasury yields have declined.

Amid recession concerns, people are taking action to be prepared in times of an economic slow-down. While it’s not imminent at this point in time, we wait to see what Q3 reports say and where the chips may fall by year end 2019.




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