For the longest time in 2019, Bitcoin investors have been shooting for the moon, calling for the BTC price to hit lofty price points, like $50,000 and $100,000. The cryptocurrency has the potential to usurp traditional power schema, according to the crypto community. But, Peter Schiff, a leading gold investor, doesn’t think such appreciation will take place. He holds the opinion that Bitcoin won’t hold six digits. The prominent gold bug and libertarian investor remarked in a recent tweet that “Bitcoin is never going to hit $100,000,” seemingly in a bid to quash the hopes and dreams of industry hopefuls.
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Perhaps part of his rationale is the following tweet:
Schiff has been quoted as saying that BTC is an unreliable store of value and an improper investment, especially when pitted against precious metals. Schiff’s quip against Bitcoin came shortly after he remarked that the cryptocurrency market is ready to fall to pre-2017 levels. Previously, he said that the entire Bitcoin market is being manipulated by whales who are ready to dump on the market:
“BTC hodlers won’t sell as they believe they’ll get rich when it moons. Whales get rich by selling now to realize their paper gains before a market crash wipes them out. The whales must make sure the hodlers don’t lose faith and cash out so that they can cash in!”
While Schiff believes that Bitcoin will never reach a six-digit price point, one of the most recognizable and accurate price models for the cryptocurrency says otherwise. PlanB’s stock-to-flow scarcity model for Bitcoin, which uses the cryptocurrency’s stock-to-flow ratio, or the inflation rate, and relates it to BTC’s market capitalization.
The linear regression model, which produces a 95% R2, predicts that BTC’s fair value will reach somewhere between $50,000 and $100,000 after the May 2020 halving event. As absurd as this may sound, PlanB’s research has also found that Bitcoin always trends towards the fair value indicated by the model with ample time. In other words, supply determines demand when it does and not when it doesn’t. It isn’t only the scarcity of BTC that will be a boon for the cryptocurrency markets.
Earlier this year, Anthony Pompliano sat down on CNN to talk crypto. In the interview, Pompliano made the jaw-dropping assertion that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 some time within the next two-odd years. Although this may seem out of place but he believes the confluence of the halving and the increased liquidity and inflation risk created by central banks can boost BTC sky-high, even to the moon, so to speak. This price model and prediction may seem optimistic, but many people are betting on the fact that BTC will surpass the $100K mark. Brad Mills, a popular industry commentator, reminded Schiff that a $100,000 BTC will give the cryptocurrency $2 trillion market capitalization, which is nothing, when compared to the market cap of gold.
Many other crypto experts, like the head of the IOHK blockchain company, Charles Hoskinson, is convinced that Bitcoin will return to the $10,000 and then proceed to as high as $100,000. He is convinced that Bitcoin price is falling due to FUD, manipulation and trading based on the current news cycle. Notably though, Hoskinson announced that the idea at the core of Bitcoin failed.
Meanwhile, at the time of writing, BTC/USD managed to recover from the Asian low and settle above the local resistance of $7,150. This development improved the short-term technical picture but we still need to see a sustainable move above $8,000 to allow for an extended recovery.
Bitcoin podcast host Trace Mayer has said that the bitcoin price in 2019 will likely close at $21,000, according to the trajectory posited by his ‘Mayer Multiple’ price indicator. The Mayer Multiple reportedly is an equation that involves dividing current BTC price by its 200-day moving average.
Former Goldman Sachs analyst turned Bitcoin maximalist, Murad Mahmudov, believes the top cryptocurrency will hit $100,000. Mahmudov’s eye-popping $100,000 forecast has been recently echoed by Morgan Creek Digital Assets founder Anthony Pompliano, who considers that the recent dovish turn by central banks will be rocket fuel for Bitcoin’s price and help drive it to $100,000 by the end of 2021. Pompliano also cited Bitcoin’s halving — the reduction of mining rewards in half in May 2020 — as a major factor likely to propel the coin’s valuation upwards.
While Pomp and other Bitcoin maximalists have been fixated on a $100K future for Bitcoin, I believe that this is a highly unrealistic number. Bitcoin may hit higher highs in 2020, but $20,000 is all. It was designed to be a P2P electronic cash system and not a lottery ticket. Block reward halving, the integrity of the network, and developers around the world may agree with me when I say Bitcoin’s race to $100K will only drive it further from adoption. A less volatile and more realistic price point would be $20,000. And that’s what I have to say about that.
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