Let’s start off with Ethereum’s 90-day price range with a high of $195.94 to a low of $119.78; the 52-week high/low being $361.40/$102.93 according to coinmarketcap.com. As we close out 2019, we are taking a look at the market analysis to see if we can get ahead with some Ethereum price predictions for Q1-2020.
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Ether (ETH), the number two cryptocurrency by market capitalization, exited crypto winter with a positive outlook like most cryptocurrencies in the top ten list by market cap. The price, however, resumed a bearish trend at the end of Q2-2019.
Let’s analyze the price dynamics and interesting fundamental trend drivers of the ETHUSD price pair in 2019.
Ethereum Analysis
ETHUSD: Monthly Time Frame
ETHUSD has been in a downward trend since the bearish accumulation pattern on October 1, 2018, with resistance set at $198.7, and a price decline of about 59.07% from the bearish accumulation pattern.
The bulls took over the market by a breakthrough of the $161.20 bearish accumulation resistance which later signaled a bullish accumulation set up on March 1, 2019 at $141.25, showing a further optimistic outlook.
With the formation of the spinning top candlestick on June 1, 2019 at $363.3, indicating that the bulls are beginning to lose control of the market, followed by a breakdown of bullish accumulation on November 1, 2019 at $152.53, it was a confirmation that the bears have taken control of the market.
We anticipate that the bears will continue dominate ETHUSD to around the $109.11 region, into the new year.
ETHUSD: Weekly Time Frame
On the ETHUSD weekly time frame, the bulls took over the market with the formation of a breakout of bearish accumulation on December 17, 2018, with long entry at $133.76, setting support at $83. The early bearish price slump was as a result of a negative interpretation of the DevCon4 conference on October 30 2018, which led to a price decline of about -2.32%
The Classic Vision Hard Fork of January 11, 2019 and Ethereum Constantinople of January 16, 2019 was an early catalyst to an exit from the 2018 crypto winter for a price increase of about 10.97%.
With the formation of bullish accumulation on March 11, 2019, it set up support at $141.71. The bulls broke through the resistance, tested the support, and ultimately assumed control with a breakout of hidden bearish accumulation on May 6, 2019.
Breaking above the MA-50, the ETH price rallied up to $363.82 on June 24, 2019, which is about 172.00% at the 140 day mark. A breakdown of hidden bullish accumulation on July 8, 2019, at $226.19, reveals the end of the bullish rally.
On July 22, 2019, at $235.27, the price chart clearly shows that the bears are back in control, later breaking the MA-50 supports for the first time on August 26, 2019.
We project the bears will dominate the ETHUSD price pair through the end of the year and into Q1-2020.
ETHUSD: Daily Time Frame
Lastly, on the daily time frame, a regular bullish divergence signals the presence of bulls on December 17, 2018 at $97.25, as the uptrend rallies to $334.20 on May 5, 2019; approximately 235.02% in 152 days.
A regular bearish divergence on June 27, 2019 at $294.8 indicates the presence of bears in the market. The market then retraced and broke through MA-50, which served as resistance. But there was a bull-trap on September 20, 2019, which signaled that bears are back in the market, again breaking MA-50 to push towards the $143.91 support, countered by a regular bullish divergence pattern.
On October 25, 2019 at $181.95, the chart indicated the presence of bulls but the rally to MA-50 was unable to break through. Then on November 17, 2019 at $186.65, a breakdown of a bullish accumulation stressed that the bears took control of the market, breaking through MA-50 to set support at $143.91.
We anticipate the move to reach $136.75, which is roughly 53.62%.
The Bears and Bulls Scenario
Bullish Scenario
Generally, the price is around $143.91 the support zone. If the bears can’t push through, we are likely going to see a price recoil to the upside.
Bearish Scenario
November’s breakdown of bullish accumulation reinforced the probability of the price moving down toward the December 1, 2018 low at $80.60. Let’s not forget the live launch of the Ethereum Istanbul hardfork that sets a strong bearish undertone towards ETHUSD.
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